England and Wales under organic agriculture: how much food could be produced?
Philip Jones with Richard Crane
Executive summary
1. Introduction
Whilst agriculture has many functions, the most important will always be the supply of sufficient food, at an affordable price, to feed the population. Driven by both consumer demand and public subsidy, the fastest growing UK agricultural sector in recent years has been organic. Critics argue that, due to its lower yields, organic agriculture cannot produce enough food to feed the world. This criticism continues, in spite of studies contesting this accepted wisdom, particularly in relation to subsistence agriculture in the Southern Hemisphere, where it has been shown that yields might increase significantly under organic agriculture. For Northern Hemisphere agriculture, there is wide consensus that organic production results in yields perhaps 40% lower, on average, than under conventional agriculture.
At a time when there is growing interest in food and energy security, and reducing the carbon footprint of agriculture, the question of the capacity of organic agriculture to feed the UK population is increasingly relevant. Because conventional agriculture does not currently meet all our food requirements, it would be unfair to ask this of organic. A more reasonable question would be, could organic agriculture supply as much food as conventional agriculture currently does? There have been no recent major studies on this and past ones were limited by their simplistic assumptions, or lack of data on actual organic farming practice. The study reported here uses real organic farm data and, thus, is a unique examination of the likely impact on domestic food supply of full organic conversion.
2. Method
A sample of 176 farms from the government-funded 2006 FBS dataset were analysed. Farms were classified organic if over 70% of their area was organic or 'in conversion'. The analysis involved 'raising' the FBS organic data to the England and Wales level, so reflecting all constraints that would determine the land use patterns of a greatly expanded organic sector. As alternative approaches to 'raising' have limitations, two different approaches were deployed to construct a more reliable picture. First, weighting by farm type and, second, weighting by yields.
3. Results
A wholly organic agriculture would produce around 60% of current conventional cereals production and self-sufficiency would fall from around 100% to nearer 60%. While organic wheat yields are near 70% of conventional, wheat is under-represented on organic farms and so, to increase supply, land would have to be diverted away from that currently growing minor cereals. Barley is also under-represented on organic farms and so, while yields are as high as about 75% of conventional, organic agriculture would probably only supply around half of current volumes. Oats are heavily over-represented on organic farms and so, in spite of low yields compared to conventional, production of them would need to be scaled back to avoid over provision. As there is now no domestic market for organic oilseed rape or sugar beet, there would be limited organic production of these crops unless organic processing capacity is reinstated. A wholly organic agriculture would produce forage peas/beans and potato volumes equivalent to the conventional situation. Organic vegetables yields are fairly comparable to conventional and, therefore, organic supplies would equate with conventional (both of field-scale and protected varieties).
The study shows that, in the light of the current rapid dairy industry restructuring, a wholly organic dairy sector could produce as much as 70% of conventional milk volumes but this would reduce the milk self-sufficiency ratio from around 90% to near 60%. As livestock enterprises are more common on organic farms than on their conventional equivalents, a wholly organic agriculture would supply 68% more beef and 55% more sheep meat than current conventional agriculture. On this basis, beef production would exceed domestic demand and self-sufficiency would be achieved for lamb.
The pig and poultry meat sectors would be hardest hit by transition to organic production. With the end of intensive systems, production would fall to some 30% of current conventional levels, although there would be some potential for expansion of production onto the extensive areas of grassland available on organic farms. The position for eggs is that a wholly organic agriculture is estimated to produce around 73% of the conventional egg numbers, so reducing the self-sufficiency ratio for eggs from near 90% at present to perhaps 65%.
The notion of organic agriculture being 'low input' is shown to be a somewhat simplistic view. Rather, organic agriculture adopts a more rotational approach using different, more internally derived inputs, which may or may not make it more sustainable than conventional agriculture. For example, there would be very significant savings in inorganic agro-chemical use, but on-farm energy use may rise. However, accounting for the energy used in the manufacture of current agricultural inputs, total energy demands are likely to be lower. Over the whole industry, farm employment would be 70% higher, with associated spin-off benefits for the wider rural economy and society.
4. Conclusions
The estimates project the likely immediate effect of a switch of all agriculture to organic, taking no account of potential yield increases from the development of new organic management practices, or technology improvements from investment by plant and animal breeders. Constructive argument on the desirability and nature of support for the organic sector has been constrained by limited data on the impact of organic expansion on food supply, input use and farm employment. This study can, hopefully, provide some balance to the debate.
The picture that emerges is mixed. For example, food production losses would not be as great and increases in on-farm employment would be higher than might be supposed. It is also clear that the potential for organic agriculture to vary systems of production is limited and so the ratios of commodities supplied would necessarily change, with some products, such as pig and poultry meat, being significantly under-supplied. To the extent that this study has shed new light on these issues, policy makers should now be better placed to decide how policies supporting organic agriculture should be amended or developed.
A full copy of this report is available to order.
